Exports of nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia are likely to increase sharply this year, potentially doubling to as much as 30 million tonnes, according to executives in the mining industry. The anticipated rise comes after Indonesia imposed significant production curbs aimed at supporting nickel prices.
Indonesian authorities have tightened domestic supply, forcing smelters in the country to seek additional ore from abroad. With local output restricted, buyers are expected to turn to external sources, particularly the Philippines, as well as other producers such as New Caledonia.
Philippine nickel shipments to Indonesia were roughly 15 million tonnes in 2025, and this figure could grow substantially in 2026 if the curbs persist. While most Philippine nickel ore traditionally goes to China, demand from Indonesia has risen since production limits were introduced.
Industry leaders believe that reduced Indonesian production will create opportunities for Philippine exporters, especially if global demand remains strong. However, expanding Philippine output will depend on accelerating approvals for mine expansions, as many existing operations are advancing in age.
The trend underscores changing trade flows in the nickel market, with Southeast Asia’s largest producers increasingly linked through shifting supply and policy decisions.
